Luck, breeding, distance make Triple attempt tough

NEW YORK – The Triple Crown.

Three races in a five-week span at varying distances on different tracks. So tough only 11 horses have won it, none in 34 years, by far the longest gap ever.

Now it’s your turn to try, I’ll Have Another, on Saturday at the Belmont Stakes.

“You need the racing luck,” suggests Bob Baffert, the only trainer to lose the Belmont three times with horses that won the first two legs.

It’s tougher these days because of changes in breeding, full fields of 20 horses in the Kentucky Derby, more foals and an increased emphasis by owners and trainers on the sport’s three biggest races.

I’ll Have Another, an average-sized chestnut colt, appears to have rebounded well after two hard races in the Derby and Preakness, with the most exhausting still to come. He’ll run 11⁄2 miles around Belmont’s oval with 11 rivals gunning to keep history from happening.

Before Affirmed swept the 1978 Kentucky Derby, Preakness and Belmont, 25 years had passed between Citation in 1948 and Secretariat in 1973.

Ask trainers and jockeys what makes winning the Triple Crown so difficult, and no one can agree on a single factor.

Three horses accomplished the feat in the 1930s, four did it in the ’40s, and three more pulled it off in the ’70s.

The current 34-year drought began after Affirmed outdueled Alydar to sweep the series in 1978.

Breeding has changed over the years, with speed replacing stamina as the top priority.

“Back in the ’70s we were still breeding horses to race them and so much of the industry now is concentrated on sales,” said Penny Chenery, who owned Secretariat. “And so you breed a precocious, good-looking, early speed horse who isn’t equipped to go a mile and a half, or to run three hard races in five weeks.”

Another reason a Triple is so difficult is the greater emphasis on the series. Owners know that a winner of any of the race, much less all three, can command huge prices in the breeding shed, while trainers can burnish their credentials with multiple wins.

A lot more horses are eligible for the Triple Crown these days, too.

There were just 2,128 foals the same year as Sir Barton; 32,187 thoroughbreds were born three years ago, and only 20 of those earned enough money to qualify for the Kentucky Derby.

Barclay Tagg, who oversaw Funny Cide’s failed Triple bid in 2003, doesn’t believe it’s anything in particular about the Belmont that does in potential history-makers, but rather the tight schedule of winter prep races followed by the three races in quick succession.

“Before those murderous five weeks come up, you’ve got to be in probably three preps against much tougher competition.” Tagg said. “Races like the Florida Derby, the Wood, the Fountain of Youth, the Louisiana Derby, they are major races and take a lot out of you.”

Nicknamed “The Test of the Champion,” the Belmont is uncharted territory for 3-year-olds who have never run that far and likely won’t again.

“It’s such an odd distance in American racing,” said trainer Dale Romans, who will saddle Dullahan on Saturday. “I don’t think any of us have a really good handle on it.”

Doug O’Neill, who trains I’ll Have Another, said, “I don’t think you can take a horse that can’t get a mile and a half and do anything special training-wise to make him get a mile and a half. It’s just a matter of how they’re feeling that day.”

Jockeys aren’t used to riding races that long, either. The Belmont has undone both rookies and Hall of Fame riders alike. Some have mistakenly moved too soon and burned out their horses before the 1,097-yard stretch run. Others have moved too late and let the leaders get away.

“More riders lose this race than horses,” said trainer D. Wayne Lukas, a four-time Belmont winner who lost a Triple Crown attempt with Charismatic in 1999.

The deep, sandy surface can prove tiring to run on, the turns are sweeping, and the poles used by jockeys to judge their location are placed differently than at the mile tracks where most of them ride.

“It’s very deceiving,” said Mike Smith, who is 1-for-13 in the Belmont and will be aboard Paynter on Saturday. “Where the half-mile pole is on a normal track, it’s the three-quarter pole at Belmont, so it can throw you off. You can use those big turns to do different things and throw a race wide open depending on the pace.”

I’ll Have Another’s California-based jockey Mario Gutierrez planned to ride a few races at Belmont on Friday for practice before the big day.

In the Belmont, I’ll Have Another will break from the No. 11 post, with most of the field inside of him, giving Gutierrez room to position his colt out of trouble early. What happens the rest of the way is left to chance.

“The ifs have to happen,” Baffert said.

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AP Sports Writer Richard Rosenblatt contributed to this report.