WASHINGTON (AP) — It will be the first up or down fact check of a Barack Obama campaign pledge for his second term: Promised warmer Inauguration Day weather. Will he — or Mother Nature — deliver?

It's looking like an uncomfortably close call — the emphasis on the word uncomfortable for people who will be outside on what's predicted to be a downright chilly day.

In September, campaigning in Colorado, Obama was talking to a potential voter who mentioned he had been one of the hundreds of thousands of people outdoors at Obama's bone-chilling first inaugural when the noontime temperature was an unseasonable chilly 28 degrees. Obama promised: "This one is going to be warmer."