Swine flu testing to be focused on severe cases

Dr. Martin Jones uses hand sanitizer Friday after seeing a patient whom he tested for swine flu at Care Now in Allen, Texas. (AP photo)

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CHICAGO – Illinois joined the grim and growing list of states with confirmed swine flu cases and handed out stockpiled drugs while businesses ramped up for the possibility of employees working from home.

The state's official count Saturday grew to 88 probable and confirmed cases of swine flu. The first probable cases were also reported outside Chicago and its suburbs, to include one positive case in each Sangamon and Winnebago counties, according to the Illinois Department of Public Health.

Although more cases are expected, Dr. Damon Arnold, head of the Illinois Department of Public Health, said in a news release Saturday there is no need to be alarmed.

"We have prepositioned antiviral medications and medical supplies at hospitals and local health departments across the state so if and when they are needed, they will be readily available," Arnold said.

In a news conference Friday, Arnold said that testing for swine flu would focus on hospitalized patients with severe illness. While it’s unclear whether the new standard would even have detected any of the cases already identified, he said one aim was to calm the public.

“We don’t want to react with fear,” Arnold added.

Health department spokeswoman Melaney Arnold said the new, less aggressive testing standard would reduce a backlog of untested samples.

Officials have tested more than 500 specimens from patients with flu symptoms and continue to receive more samples from doctors everyday. The health department is using existing staff and resources to keep up.

But the state’s running tally will no longer “truly represent” the number of swine flu cases in Illinois, the spokeswoman said, because most cases have been mild, that is, similar in severity to regular flu, and can be handled by doctors without tests to confirm the new virus.

The new strain is a mix of pig, bird and human genes to which people have limited natural immunity. Its symptoms are nearly identical to regular flu – fever, cough and sore throat – and it spreads the same way, through tiny particles in the air, when people cough or sneeze.

A dozen deaths in Mexico and one in the United States have been attributed to confirmed cases of swine flu. In contrast, it’s estimated 36,000 people die every year from ordinary human flu in the United States.

In private industries, managers reached for answers. Gisele Norris of Chicago-based Aon Corp.’s health-care division said the company’s clients are asking questions related to travel, limiting losses and finding alternate suppliers. They’re checking on how their insurance policies might cover a loss of business, what technology they need for employees to work from home and how to communicate in a crisis.

“Planning now is not wasted effort,” Norris said. Even if this outbreak doesn’t grow into a global epidemic, today’s planning will better prepare companies for the next crisis.

In Evanston, a computer model created by Northwestern University researchers is doing a good job predicting the spread of swine flu, researchers said.

The model’s predictions held steady Friday, even as new information was added, said Dirk Brockmann, associate professor of engineering sciences and applied mathematics at NU’s McCormick School of Engineering and Applied Science, who leads the research group.

The model predicts the Chicago area will have between 120 and 216 cases of swine flu one month from now. And it’s predicting the entire United States will have between 1,600 and 2,000 cases by then.

It uses travel patterns, how the flu is transmitted and recovery rates to come up with worst-case scenarios. Doctoral students Christian Thiemann, Rafael Brune, Alejandro Morales Gallardo and Vincent David continually update the model with new flu numbers.

Brockmann said governments one day could use the model to better distribute medicines during epidemics.

When told the state’s tally would be based on new testing standards, Brockmann said, “That’s very valuable information. We’ll have to look into it.”

At a march in Chicago planned by immigration activists, turnout was lighter than expected. Susana Avita said some people stayed home out of fear they might contract swine flu. But she said she set her fears aside because changes to U.S. immigration policies are too important.

“I’m afraid but I have to go on,” Avita said. “I pray that nothing happens to me (but) I don’t want fear to stop me.”

Authorities planned to limit visitors to the Cook County Jail to immediate family members because of swine flu concerns. Starting Saturday, jail visitors will be limited to parents, legal guardians, brothers, sisters, spouses and children. Attorneys can still see their clients, but visitors will be asked if they have a fever, cough or other flu-like symptoms.

Illinois health officials said the state has enough flu drugs on hand to treat more than 1 million people, plus quick access to enough additional drugs to treat roughly 25 percent of its population outside Chicago.

State health director Arnold said flu medicine and supplies have been almost entirely delivered to about 250 local health departments and hospitals.

“That occurred without any hitches,” he said.