Analysis: Election lessons will shape ’10 campaign

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Virginia Gov. Tim Kaine answers questions Wednesday about election results in Richmond, Va. Kaine said Democratic losses in Virginia and New Jersey had more to do with local issues than the first-year performance of President Obama. (AP photo)

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WASHINGTON – What we learned from the off-year elections: The president’s influence is limited, independents rule, incumbents beware, issues trump ideology and, once more, “It’s the economy, stupid.”

Also: Republicans can win – even if they lack a leader and their base is cracked. And this certainly isn’t the Democratic-friendly political environment of 2006 and 2008 when the party captured control of Congress and the White House.

The first Election Day of Barack Obama’s presidency was a big night for Republicans, who recaptured governorships in the swing state of Virginia and the Democratic stronghold of New Jersey. Democrats won two races for vacant congressional seats, including one in upstate New York that long had been held by Republicans and that exposed a GOP divide.

So, what did we learn about politics, people and their priorities from the handful of races on Tuesday? And how will those lessons shape the maneuvering of Republicans and Democrats ahead of 2010 midterms, when Obama’s prestige will be put to the test across the country?

Among the lessons learned:

Obama’s political power is limited

“Yes, we can!” has turned into “Yes, we can – if we feel like it!”

The broad coalition – minorities, young people, first-time voters, Republican crossovers and independents – that fueled Obama’s victory was a 2008 phenomenon; it can’t be counted on if the man himself is not on the ballot. Even though Obama personally implored his supporters to turn out in droves, voters rejected incumbent Democratic Gov. Jon Corzine in New Jersey and Democratic candidate R. Creigh Deeds in Virginia.

That could be a problem for Democratic lawmakers in swing states and conservative-to-moderate districts next fall because Obama won’t be on the ballot to drive up turnout. Candidates carried into office in the Obama wave will be vulnerable in 2010 – with no lifeguard to help. And that could influence how those lawmakers vote in Congress in the meantime.

With Obama unable to guarantee their political survival, what’s the incentive for them to back his legislative agenda?

Independents
are kingmakers

Voters who don’t claim a political party again proved their value by propelling Republicans to victory in Virginia and New Jersey one year after carrying Obama to the White House.

Independents are, well, truly independent – and, thus, are extraordinarily fickle.

Last year, hope and change tilted them toward Democrats. This year, anger and frustration tilted them to Republicans. They broke 2-1 for GOP victors Chris Christie in New Jersey and Bob McDonnell in Virginia.

Issues, from jobs to taxes to government spending, drive this center of the electorate, so candidates who talk about what independents care most about will win the middle and, thus, elections.

Incumbents beware

This means you, Mr. President, as well as Democrats who control Congress and even Re­publicans in certain seats. If you’re in office, voters are coming after you.

In the midst of recession, people vented their frustrations by ousting Democrats from power in New Jersey and Vir­ginia. And Democrat Bill Owens won a House seat held for decades by Republicans in a special election in upstate New York.

Also, in New York City, independent Mayor Michael Bloomberg barely won a third term against a little-known, poorly funded Democratic challenger. Voters generally approved of Bloomberg’s job performance but resented his aggressive effort to get the city’s term limits law lifted and his spending as much as $100 million of his own money to stay in power.

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