A demographic study projecting future enrollment at Harvard School District 50 anticipates slow growth over the next five years, assuming certain residential development and fertility numbers remain stable.
The study, which was completed in November by John Kasarda, projected enrollment based on two central factors: resulting family sizes from future fertility rates and net student migration resulting from new housing development in the district.
Based on recent demographic surveys of young adults who indicate no significant change to fertility rates, this factor was assumed to remain relatively stable through 2023.
Three series of numbers were prepared. Series A assumes new housing development and housing turnover to be 15 percent below the average of the past four years, Series B is the most likely scenario and assumes housing statistics to remain on average, and Series C assumes housing numbers at 15 percent above average.
Current enrollment for the district, including pre-K, sits at 2,713 students. Series B projections expect that number to grow to 2,862 students in the
2024-25 academic year. Total enrollment then would stabilize near that number through the 2028-29 academic year.
Under Series A, enrollment would drop to 2,437 by the 2026-27 school year before leveling off. Under Series C, enrollment would rise to about 3,200 students by 2025-26 before stabilizing.
“These projections should be monitored and updated regularly to ensure that policy decisions are based on the latest and most reliable figures,” Kasarda wrote in his closing remarks.
A copy of the full study is available on District 50’s website at www.cusd50.org/blog/2019/02/14/harvard-cusd-50-kasarda-demographic-study.